MOSCOW. May 23 (Interfax-AVN) - The United States will have to adjust its plans on withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan and is likely to keep them at least until 2024, says Lt. Gen. Igor Sergun, the chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff.
"By the end of 2014, the International Security Assistance Force is supposed to withdraw at least 40,000 servicemen, about 40,000 automobiles and armored vehicles, and about 30 helicopters. GRU anticipates that the U.S. won't be able to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, and Washington will have to adjust its withdrawal plans. The U.S.' military presence in Afghanistan will last at least until 2024," Sergun said at the 3rd Moscow International Security Conference on Friday.
ISAF will be able to withdraw only a significant part of its personnel but not hardware by the end of 2014, Sergun said. Even if the main routes for withdrawing the troops and hardware function well, the withdrawal of the hardware will continue until 2017, "and if the southern route is closed, this process will last until 2020," he said.
The Russian military intelligence chief cited data of the math modeling of three most likely scenarios in Afghanistan after ISAF's pullout.
The first scenario implies the preservation of the current Kabul regime with limited military presence of Western countries in Afghanistan, and its likelihood has been estimated at 0.39.
The second scenario, the likelihood of which is seen as 0.27, envisions the seizure of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban, which, in Sergun's words, involves "a growing threat of the spread of military actions to the Central Asian countries neighboring Afghanistan."
The third scenario implies Afghanistan's breakup into ethnic enclaves, and its likelihood is estimated by GRU at 0.31, he said.