MOSCOW. Feb 20 (Interfax) - Syria may be de facto divided into spheres of influence in case the ceasefire holds and the political settlement process either goes slow or fails, academic head of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN) Institute of Oriental Studies Vitaly Naumkin told Interfax in an interview.
"With the launch of the cessation of hostilities in Syria, which we are expecting to hold, and in case the Astana process proves successful and is bolstered, the future of the territories controlled by the opposing sides and freed from terrorists will become a topical question for a number of reasons," Naumkin said.
"Let us see what happens if the ceasefire holds and the political process is slow or delayed or even fails. Could it be so that numerous armed opposition units operating under the wing of Turkey settle down in the Idlib governorate and this territory eventually becomes a quasi-state? The same may happen to the lands controlled by Turkey in the country's north, near the Kurdish cantons, and to the south, which is under Jordan's patronage," he said.
"Would Syria's de facto division hinder the political process, as opposition groups and their foreign sponsors see no need to maintain political dialogue due to everyone's satisfaction with their current position?" Naumkin said.
U.S. President Donald Trump's idea of 'safe zones' testifies in favor of the scenario of Syria's de facto federalization, Naumkin said.
"It is still unclear what is actually being implied, but the United States and Turkey agreed to pool efforts to form such zones just a few days ago. There is information that Turkey would obviously like those safe zones to be created on the lands under its control," he said.
"What is more, there have been reports that certain sponsors of that plan intend to build new populated localities with developed infrastructures in the safe zones for accommodating refugees and units of the Syrian armed opposition," Naumkin said.
"This means that an enclave sponsored by Turkey with the support of the United States (and Europe) may actually be formed in the territory of Syria and compete against its remaining part," Naumkin said. "Investments would be made, infrastructures would be developed, homes would be built, and living conditions would be better than on the devastated lands controlled by Damascus. It would be hard for Damascus to rebuild those territories on its own, without foreign support," he said.
"So far, there are no countries and international organizations, with a few exceptions, that are willing to rebuild regions controlled by the incumbent Syrian government," Naumkin said.