MOSCOW. Feb 12 (Interfax) - Tehran is interested in dialogue with the United States on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program, and yet, considering the current domestic political situation, the Iranian leadership will abstain from direct contacts on the matter with the administration of Joe Biden until at least the end of summer, Vladimir Sazhin, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, said in an interview with Interfax on Thursday.
"The domestic political situation in Iran is extremely complicated right now in light of the presidential election scheduled for June. Analysis of the situation suggests that the next president will be an anti-Western politician, and yet he will seek some dialogue with the United States to have the sanctions lifted, as the Iranian economy's future depends on it," Sazhin told Interfax on Thursday.
"Before the Iranian president's inauguration, which should take place in August, the supreme leader of Iran is unlikely to give the go-ahead for dialogue with the Americans. This is because the current Iranian Cabinet of Ministers has some liberal-reformist disposition. If some agreements with the U.S. were possible before the presidential elections, this would give a solid advantage to the liberal wing of the Iranian elite. The supreme leader of Iran doesn't need this at all," he said.
While the new U.S. administration is interested in dialogue with Tehran, it is facing some restrictions on starting direct talks, Sazhin said.
"Biden's situation on the Iranian track is difficult. Three weeks have passed since his inauguration, and a team to address Iran hasn't yet been put together. In principle, the Americans have a strong team for such a dialogue, but it hasn't yet been set up formally. The U.S. president also has some legal issues. There is legislation empowering Congress to contain the president's initiatives in regard to Iran," he said.
Dialogue between the U.S. and Iran could have a chance, provided there is support from the other parties to the nuclear deal, Sazhin said.
"For such negotiations to be productive, the entire 5+1 group should be involved in them, namely Russia, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. But the main dialogue should be between Washington and Tehran," he said.
Some other circumstances also prevent the start of a direct dialogue, Sazhin said.
"Both parties have encouraged each other to take the first step. The Iranians have proposed lifting the sanctions from them, and then, after the quality of this lifting is verified, they will abandon the measures that Tehran resorted to after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA two years ago. Biden doesn't agree to this, and he has urged the Iranians first to dismantle everything that Tehran started two years ago, and only then will Washington be prepared to return to the nuclear deal," he said.
A dialogue could be started if the parties agree to meet each other's demands "synchronously," Sazhin said. "For instance, the Americans could unfreeze some Iranian assets. In response to this, the Iranians could stop enriching uranium to 20%. If Washington and Tehran agree to settle the JCPOA problem synchronously, this would probably be the only realistic solution," he said.