MOSCOW. Aug 31 (Interfax) - The situation in Afghanistan will be posing a threat to Russia and its Central Asian allies for years, military expert, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Arbatov said.
"Indeed, Afghanistan will be a problem for Russia over years," Arbatov, who heads the International Security Center at the Academy's Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Interfax on Tuesday.
"The main risk stems from the fact that the Taliban (terrorist organization banned in Russia) are unable to control the entire territory of Afghanistan and, as life shows, are unable to control ISIL (terrorist organization banned in Russia). Most likely, the instability will spill over into Central Asia, which is a security area adjoining Russia, where Russian troops are stationed [Russia has military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan], and where Russia has obligations," he said.
There is a risk of hostilities spilling over from Afghanistan into Central Asian states, Arbatov said. "We will have to fight there in the event of the worst-case scenario," he said.
The weapons seized by various groups after the pullout of U.S.-led foreign forces from Afghanistan also constitute a threat, he said.
"This is a very big problem. Never mind the Taliban, but if these weapons together with the old Soviet weapons arm ISIL, that would be another aggravating circumstance," Arbatov said.
Former head of the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov (retired) has a different stance.
"Afghanistan can become a state friendly towards Russia," Ivashov told Interfax on Tuesday.
"There is no need to scare anyone with Afghanistan. Russia, acting together with China, Iran and Pakistan, should help Afghanistan build a new governance system. Afghans are tired of war, they need peace," Ivashov said.
"The United States has left Afghanistan, but it is to their advantage that the pot is boiling there with fire spatter reaching China, Pakistan, Central Asia, Iran and India. If we work there wisely, no one will be threatening us from the territory of Afghanistan," he said.