MOSCOW. Nov 11 (Interfax-AVN) - The reduction in demand for aircraft will stop in 2005, and the international combat and civil aircraft market will have stabilized by the turn of the decade, experts from the State Duma Committee for Industry, Construction, and Knowledge-Intensive Technologies believe.
"The demand for aircraft will reduce even further in 2005, after which the market will have stabilized by the turn of the decade," the experts' summarized proposals to the draft program on promoting combat, civil, and dual-purpose aircraft in the international market say.
The proposals have been prepared by the committee's expert council on airspace industry.
The document notes that aircraft importers operate 12,500 fighters, with at least 8,200 of them being obsolete. According to Russian experts, the world is expected to manufacture in excess of 3,000 combat aircraft for a total of about $130 billion in the current decade. The average cost of an aircraft will amount to about $47 million. The annual international combat aircraft exports will total 210 aircraft.
In 2005-2015 the international fighter market will be divided among major aircraft exporters in the following way: Russia - 25%, Western Europe - 29%, the U.S. - 31%, others - 15%.
The regional distribution of fighter procurements in the current decade is predicted to be as follows: Europe and Canada - 20.4%, South Asia - 14.3%, Southeast Asia - 19.1%, China - 11.4%, the Middle East and North Africa - 3.4%, Latin America - 7.5%, and the CIS - 2.5%.
According to the document, a total of about 700 military transports are expected to be delivered to the international market, with 500 of them to be procured by developing states in the following way: the Asia-Pacific Region - 39%, the Middle East - 27%, Latin America -15%, Africa - 19%.
It also says that, according to western sources, about 300 combat helicopters will have been delivered to the international market on an annual basis until 2010. At the same time Russia will account for 13-16% of helicopters exported, the U.S. - 41-43%, Western Europe - about 32%.
According to Russian experts, the European market will demand attack and reconnaissance helicopters, the Asia-Pacific market - armed utility, ASW, and reconnaissance helicopters, the Middle East - anti-tank and utility helicopters, Latin America - patrol, reconnaissance, and utility helicopters, and Africa - medium transportation helicopters.