BRUSSELS/MOSCOW. Dec 17 (Interfax-AVN) -- EU leaders were set to declare their "political will" to lift an arms embargo on China but stressed Beijing must respect human rights and regional stability, the draft EU summit conclusions said.
"In this context the European Council reaffirmed the political will to continue to work towards lifting the arms embargo," reads the document to be signed on Friday. "It underlined that the result of any decision should not be an increase of arms exports from EU member states to China, neither in quantitative nor qualitative terms," it says.
The participants in the summit "recalled the importance of the criteria" of a new EU code of conduct on arms exports, "in particular criteria regarding human rights, stability and security in the region and the national security of friendly and allied countries."
The embargo was imposed on China after the 1989 events on Tiananmen Square. The main supporters of its lifting are French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.
Commenting on the EU intention, Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy director of the Russian Analysis, Strategy and Technologies Center, told Interfax-Military News Agency that the abolition of the embargo on arms trade with China will not considerably affect Russian-Chinese military technical cooperation.
"We should not expect re-orientation or even a large-scale diversification of China's military imports in the next few years, in particular, due to the position of the U.S. which will doubtlessly exercise intensive pressure on European countries on this issue," he said.
"Russia's most obvious response to penetration of Europeans on the Chinese arms market should be an increase in the technological level of weapons systems offered to that country," Makiyenko noted.
According to him, at the present time the lion's share of contracts, signed by Russia and China, envision deliveries of naval armaments, as well as air defense systems. Besides the Project 636 submarine, already handed over to China, Russia is to deliver another seven submarines of the same time, as well as two Project 956EM destroyers. In addition to that, Russia is also to deliver eight battalions of S-300PMU-2 Favorit air defense systems.
"It is also worth mentioning that in 2004 the Chinese Navy has been fielded with 24 SU-30MK2 Flanker multi-role combat aircraft. Beside, China has received two battalions of S-300PMU-1 air defense systems and a Project 636 submarine," Makiyenko said.
According to him, in the next half a year Russian-Chinese military technical cooperation is likely to focus on signing a contract on delivering the second batch of SU-30MK2 aircraft. In addition to that, the second part of the license contract, envisioning a delivery of another 100 dismantled SU-27SK Flanker aircraft to be assembled in China, may also be expected to be signed.
"Despite a slight delay in signing a contract on delivering the second batch of SU-30MK2s, which must have been caused by negotiating tactics, we believe that the deal will be struck in early 2005," Makiyenko said.
The analysis of the existing potential of the Chinese Navy and its tasks shows that China needs at least another one, but more likely two regiments of shipborne aircraft, i.e. it will need to procure another 24 or 48 SU-30MK2s.
"The procurement is all the more likely given the fact that the development of the JH-7A naval aircraft is facing obvious technical problems, while the aircraft became morally obsolete as early as the design stage," Makienko said.
As far as the contract on delivering dismantled SU-27SKs is concerned, Russia should change its offer in favor of the SU-27SKM, designed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau, which features the same combat capabilities as the SU-30MKK, but unlike the latter is a single-seat aircraft.